美国经济

就业和物价

就业人口

就业人口长期数据

就业人口长期变化趋势

就业人口中期变化趋势

个人消费支出和通胀预期

  • Measuring inflation trends: Why use different inflation measures for policy analysis? Congress has instructed the Federal Reserve to pursue monetary policies that promote maximum employment and price stability. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has determined that “inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures [PCE], is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate” for price stability.

国民生产总值和M2货币

GDP与M2长期总量

相关性

US M2 US M2(Adj) US Nominal GDP US Real GDP
US M2 1.000000 0.999923 0.982282 0.954126
US M2(Adj) 0.999923 1.000000 0.971949 0.940680
US Nominal GDP 0.982282 0.971949 1.000000 0.992898
US Real GDP 0.954126 0.940680 0.992898 1.000000

M2 Money Stock

The non-seasonally adjusted version of this weekly series: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Gross Domestic Product

Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output, is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Real Gross Domestic Product

Real gross domestic product is the inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.

Is nominal GDP always higher than real GDP?

GDP与M2中期总量

M2与GDP占比

通胀和利率

通胀与利率长期关系

相关性

Interest Rates, Discount Rate Inflation, Consumer Prices 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
Interest Rates, Discount Rate 1.000000 0.750958 0.912987 0.493290
Inflation, Consumer Prices 0.750958 1.000000 NaN NaN
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 0.912987 NaN 1.000000 0.564638
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate 0.493290 NaN 0.564638 1.000000

通胀与利率短期趋势

Inflation, consumer prices for the United States

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used.

International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

M2变化与通胀预期

M2 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
M2 1.000000 -0.277112
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate -0.277112 1.000000

股票市场

标普500与GDP

S&P 500 US Nominal GDP US Real GDP Global GDP Global GDP(DEF) US M2 US Employees
S&P 500 1.000000 0.950180 0.929545 0.924584 0.902277 0.962796 0.864763
US Nominal GDP 0.950180 1.000000 0.992898 0.988825 0.982888 0.971949 0.945412
US Real GDP 0.929545 0.992898 1.000000 0.972168 0.974881 0.940680 0.973705
Global GDP 0.924584 0.988825 0.972168 1.000000 0.994304 0.982619 0.908077
Global GDP(DEF) 0.902277 0.982888 0.974881 0.994304 1.000000 0.962260 0.924296
US M2 0.962796 0.971949 0.940680 0.982619 0.962260 1.000000 0.858806
US Employees 0.864763 0.945412 0.973705 0.908077 0.924296 0.858806 1.000000

S&P500 & M2

Median 90% Current
0 0.15399 0.227057 0.202926
Median 90% Current
0 0.18676 0.202492 0.202926

资产指数与GDP、M2

资产价格相关性

Symbol SSE Composite Index BND DBC VNQ S&P 500 CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No US M2 US Real GDP
Symbol
SSE Composite Index 1.000000 0.387095 -0.642117 0.452554 0.462959 -0.127156 0.427847 0.345275
BND 0.387095 1.000000 -0.759168 0.913506 0.940157 -0.719138 0.976005 0.866672
DBC -0.642117 -0.759168 1.000000 -0.813440 -0.770824 0.406417 -0.798826 -0.753835
VNQ 0.452554 0.913506 -0.813440 1.000000 0.944660 -0.494678 0.899239 0.978136
S&P 500 0.462959 0.940157 -0.770824 0.944660 1.000000 -0.460710 0.966967 0.961112
CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No -0.127156 -0.719138 0.406417 -0.494678 -0.460710 1.000000 -0.599833 -0.527797
US M2 0.427847 0.976005 -0.798826 0.899239 0.966967 -0.599833 1.000000 0.998921
US Real GDP 0.345275 0.866672 -0.753835 0.978136 0.961112 -0.527797 0.998921 1.000000

标普500和通胀预期

标普500和通胀预期短期相关性

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate S&P 500
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate 1.000000 0.232709
S&P 500 0.232709 1.000000